What’s going on?

Recent research suggested that declining birth rates in many countries could reshape the global economy, which means it’s not as personal as some people might think.

What does this mean?

• The global population will grow from today’s 8 billion to 9.7 billion by 2050 (according to UN). Yet, The Lancet (a medical journal) predicts that 75% of all countries will struggle to keep their populations stable from 2050.
• While women are statistically expected to have 2.1 children each to build the next generation (you know, to at least compensate for 1 biological dad and 1 biological mom), many are now ignoring that number, especially in wealthier countries.
• That means most future population increase will be from lower-income areas, specifically in Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, where climate change and limited resources are already present.

Why should I care?

The bigger picture: Developing countries had better be prepared

• Shrinking populations will inevitably end up with shrinking workforces, which means a serious drag on their economies.
• On the contrary, when the population increases, a bigger and younger workforce brings more productivity and economic growth, and a wider pool of consumers. But that only works with the right infrastructure. So developing countries (whose populations are expected to increase) need to attract enough money to fund education, businesses, and healthcare services to make sure their economies thrive.

Zooming out: We may owe AI an apology

• Japan’s workforce won’t seem to stop weakening to have 11mn fewer workers by 2040 (when 1/3 of its population is above 65 y.o), with the country’s birth rate falling for 8 years continually.
• We however should not forget about the potential saviors – robots: Japan’s already rolling out AI avatars and services to fill in the manpower gap. So maybe we shouldn’t have put the blame on AI for stealing jobs…

Content source: 
1. Finimize (2024) Old Tricks. Available at: https://finimize.com/content/oh-baby [Accessed on Mar 29, 2024]